Predictions!

Here's my prediction for how the race will shakedown tomorrow.  We’ll see if I’m close at all.

States for Obama:

Safe: ME, VT, MA. NY, CT, MD, DE, MI, MN, WI, IL, IA, WA, OR, CA, RI (thanks Seth!)

Swing State Wins:

VA- Strong showing in Northern VA plus a huge African-American turnout will push Obama over-the-top in once solidly red Virginia

PA-  I never really doubted that PA would go for the Republicans, however, the McCain campaign has played up that it is their major target in the election.  Huge turnout in Philly, plus connection made to more rural, Hillary Democrats will make Pennsylvannia crush John McCain’s dream for a comeback.

FL- Collapse of the housing market, fears over retirement funds, and a huge number of foreclosures, plus strong youth and minority showings (not to mention a ton of campaigning by the Clintons to assuage older voters’ initial discomfort with Obama) will make the state of infamy in 2000 a solid 27 electoral votes in the bank for Obama. 

CO, NM, NV- Changing demographics, plus a commitment by the Obama campaign to these states that began in the primary, will ultimately make the “purple West” into new Democratic territory.

NH (Again, thanks Seth, and epic fail on my part for somehow missing this one)- New Hampshire will go blue as it did for John Kerry in 2004.  New Hampshire Republicans tend to be pragmatic and moderate.  Though having an odd affinity for John McCain (saving both his 2000 and 2008 primary campaigns), they, as with most moderate Republicans, are not exactly pleased with the party brand right now. A good ground game by the Obama team will bring home the bacon in the Granite State.

Total for Obama: 318

States for McCain

Safe: ID, UT, AZ, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, GA, SC, TN, KY, WV

Swing State Wins:

MO- Generally considered a true bellwether, MO will get it wrong this time around.  Claire McCaskill won by a very narrow margin, and she had a better connection to the voters in between Kansas City and St. Louis than Obama does.  Strong showings in the city by Obama will not overcome McCain’s strength in “Real America”, as the campaign likes to say.

IN- A state I would never have thought would be a swing state this late in the game, or at any point during the General Election.  A great ground game set up during the primaries and huge margins in Lake County and Indianapolis will make it competitive, but it will still go red. 

NC- Another state that is competitive mostly because of the huge primary operation the campaign set up here.  The Tarheel State, though becoming more liberal because of the movement of jobs into the cities, and because of the major universities in the area, still is going for the GOP, though I believe Kay Hagan will beat out Elizabeth Dole in the Senate race.

OH- The one that decided it all in 2004 will likely have the same result in 2008.  The McCain campaign has been focusing on Ohio, as shown by a bunch of rallies and their use of “Joe the Plumber”, and it will go red by the slightest of margins. 

Total for McCain- 220

Final Score 318-220 

GOBAMA!