Obama's Future Dilemma

With a week left in this historic campaign, I can say with a good degree of certainty that Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States(knock on wood x infinity).  After hearing several prominent visiting speakers all say this, I feel comfortable agreeing with them and with what my gut has felt since mid-September.  I don’t want to jinx it or anything, but barring a truly crazy October surprise (it would have to be big enough to influence people more than the economy AND President Bush) I think Obama has it in the bag, potentially by a large margin.  If he is to win big, this gives him a mandate to make good on the change he has been talking about all campaign long.  He should be especially encouraged to forge a new path in Washington if Democrats capture 59 or potentially even 60 seats in the Senate, giving them full reign over both the Executive and the Legislative branches.  This dominance would be the beginning of new era of Democratic control unseen in this country since 1976.

One promise that has helped to catapult Obama to where he is right now, on the cusp of the most historic election in our country’s history, is that he would be willing to compromise and work across the aisle to solve our country’s problems.  It has been a dominant theme of the campaign since his famous “Red States-Blue States” speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004.   It has even created many Obama-cans , Republicans attracted to the notion of bipartisan participation in governing that Obama has so strongly advocated for.  However, this campaign promise would go directly in the face of what many Democrats would like, especially if Democrats were to obtain the “Magic 60”.  With the Republican party in disarray from coast to coast (and outside of the Lower 48- Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, was just found guilty today on corruption charges), some members of the Democratic Party will be pushing for a fairly liberal agenda in Obama’s first term.  While this is something I’m sure Obama in his heart-of-hearts  wants, it would go against his campaign promise of working across the aisle.  Passing a liberal agenda on the back of huge majorities in the House and Senate would be anything but bipartisan.

So what is Obama to do?  If he goes the route of moderation, he could tack on Republican support, make good on his campaign promise of bipartisan unity, and potentially even usher in a new era of American politics.  With the internal hemorrhaging of the Republican Party (see McCain-Palin campaign infighting, many Republican endorsements for Obama, GOP on the run in states such as Alaska, Georgia, Kentucky, and potentially even presidential losses in North Dakota and Montana).  If Obama were to tap into Republicans after the Election, he could help to put the GOP in an even bigger hole than the one they already dug themselves into.  He could shift America to the left for years to come by compromising, and thus weakening the Republican Party, creating the most dramatic shift in party power since FDR.  However, if Obama goes this route, he would put his proposals at risk could potentially face backlash from his own party.  The Democrats would be fuming.  They have not gotten their way for the past eight years.  While potentially placating independents and Republicans by compromising on some issues, he could hurt support from his real base, the Democratic Party.

His other option is to stay on course with the Democratic Party’s dream- health care reform, withdrawal from Iraq, and economic intervention in our troubled economy.   If he is to win in a Democratic landslide, he will have the popular mandate to push through exactly what he and the Democrats want.  This could totally alienate the GOP, marginalizing them in Washington, especially if Democrats control 60 seats in the Senate. Republicans would set themselves up as the underdog for the next four years, and if they are able to hold onto their base as a result of the passage of many Democratic platforms, they could regroup and come back with a vengeance, reorganized and gunning for blood in 2012. 

Obama has proven to be one of the most gifted politicians our country has ever seen, yet he still is an unknown as to how he is going to govern. He is going to need to prove himself during his first Hundred Days, yet, how is he going to do it?  Will he pass exactly what feels necessary on the back of huge majorities in the House and Senate, or will he moderate slightly to pacify the other side of the aisle?  Whichever route he chooses, he will likely face those political consequences four years from now, during his (fingers crossed) reelection campaign.